Budget Vice Chair Smucker Responds to CBO Baseline

WASHINGTON--The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published its updated baseline, the annual Budget and Economic Outlook. Vice Chair of the House Budget Committee Rep. Lloyd Smucker (PA-11) released the following statement: 

"When it comes to economic growth, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has one thing right—the Working Families Tax Cuts (WFTC) are accelerating the growth of the American economy.

"The WFTC secured the greatest tax cuts in history and put money back into the hands of Americans, who are the true drivers of the economy, not the government. Not surprisingly, we have seen two quarters of stronger-than-expected economic growth since with WFTC passed, which is exactly what I expected to happen when I voted for this bill, and what Republicans intended to happen when we wrote the bill. 

"It is unfortunate that the impact of these pro-growth policies is not fully applied in CBO's 2026 budget models. It is critical that we account for the progress that we've made and apply a fuller understanding of the positive impact of these pro-growth tax policies.

"The fact remains that the fundamentals of our nation's fiscal health have not changed and our national debt continues to pose an existential threat to the future of our nation. While we cannot change our fiscal trajectory overnight, we can still solve the problem of our growing national debt and change our fiscal trajectory to ensure a prosperous economic future for our nation. We have no other choice."

Background, courtesy of the House Budget Committee:  

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its updated budget projections for fiscal years (FY) 2026-2036. CBO’s report helps Congress understand the fiscal and economic challenges facing the country. According to the report:

• Gross Federal Debt totals $63.7 trillion (136.4 percent of GDP) in 2036, up from $38.6 trillion (123.1 percent of GDP) now. Debt is currently at the highest level in American history and keeps rising.
• 10-Year Deficit totals $24.4 trillion, greater than all deficit spending by the federal government from 1789 to 2023. The deficit increases by 68 percent over the budget window, growing from $1.9 trillion this year to $3.1 trillion (6.7 percent of GDP) in 2036.
• Mandatory Spending totals $57.9 trillion over ten years, and grows from $4.5 trillion (14.2 percent of GDP) in 2026 to $7.0 trillion (15.0 percent of GDP) in 2036.
• Net Interest Spending totals $16.2 trillion over ten years. It grows from $1.0 trillion (3.3 percent of GDP) in 2026 to $2.1 trillion (4.6 percent of GDP) in 2036. In 2026, interest spending will be the third largest item in the federal budget behind only Social Security and Medicare. Interest spending exceeds defense spending every year of the budget outlook, and is almost double defense spending by 2036. In every year of the budget outlook interest spending, as a percent of GDP, is at the highest recorded level in American history. Interest costs are projected to increase from 9 percent of federal revenue in 2021 to 19 percent of federal revenue in 2026 to 26 percent of federal revenue in 2036. Over the next ten years, for every dollar the federal government borrows, 66 cents will go to pay interest on the national debt.

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